Estimate the number of videos seen per day on Youtube?

estimation guess-estimates Market sizing
New answer on May 21, 2020
2 Answers
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PK asked on Mar 11, 2020
Director of Product at PayPal. Based in SF. Worked at Twitter, Yelp, Salesforce, Houzz in the past.

Assumptions: Videos seen refer to the number of unique videos seen and not repeat views. We are referring to views globally and not just the US.

# of videos seen per day = # of daily viewers x avg. videos that are seen per viewer -- (1)

I would like to calculate 1 for different parts of the world and then add them up together. Split the world by economic development and sum up the views by economic zone.

World population: 7B

50% of world has access to internet: 3.5B

As of now we can reasonably assume

20% of the world in the developed world - 700M

60% of world in developing world - 2.1B

20% of world in underdeveloped world - 700M

For a developed world with high access to internet they often come to the internet and sites like YT and Google. Based on my experience seeing things in my environment, I can safely assume that 50% of developed world comes to YT atleast 1 time a day. On an average users view 5 videos per session. → (0.5*700M*10) videos are seen per day → ~3.5B videos seen per day [A]

For a developing world with average to poor access to internet they come sites like YT and Google not so frequently. Based on my experience seeing things in my environment, I can safely assume that 30% of the developing world comes to YT at least 1 time a day. On an average users view 5 videos per session due to slower internet and data charges. → (0.3*2100M*2) videos are seen per day → ~3.1B videos seen per day [B]

For a underdeveloped world with poor access to internet they rarely come to the internet and sites like YT and Google. Based on my experience seeing things in my environment, I can safely assume that 10% of the developing world comes to YT atleast 1 time a day. On an average users view 1 videos per session due to slow internet and data charges. → (0.1*700M*1) videos are seen per day → 70M videos seen per day [C]

Thus the total # of videos seen per day → A+B+C = ~6.6B videos per day

Feedback would be really appreciated.

(edited)

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Clara
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Content Creator
replied on Mar 11, 2020
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello Piyush, overall agree!

The only challenge that I would make is that the assumptions on video consumption are rather low -particularly in your middle segment. Devopping countries, from my experience, do have better internet access than what you have estated.

However, for the market sizing purpose of the exercise, this does not matter -at most, they would correct on the spot some of this metrics if needed-. What counts is the approch, and this one is solid.

Congrats.

Cheers,

Clara

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RUBEN replied on May 21, 2020
Junior Strategy Consultant, London - Looking for New Opportunities

Hi Piyush,

Correct me if I am mistaken but I am not sure if the calculations are correct. For example, "On an average users view 5 videos per session. → (0.5*700M*10) videos are seen per day → ~3.5B videos seen per day [A]".

Apart from that, I think you would achieve better results if you differentiate between three levels of users. For example, power users, medium users, and low users. I think that people who like YouTube tend to watch a lot of videos per day.

Also, I am not sure if a lot of chinese people watch Youtube.

Ruben

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Clara

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