Estimate number of hospital beds in the Uk

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New answer on May 16, 2021
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Anonymous A asked on May 15, 2021

I'm confused if I should do a top-bottom approach or the bottom top approach. Please see my structure and share your feedback.
1-start with population

2- segment base on age groups (children, middle, old)

3-frequency of vists in each group

4- percentage that will be emitted into hospital to stay for a night or more . ( surgery or baby delivery or just people who are sick and need care)

5- duration of each visit (how many nights will they spend?)

6- add them all up to know demand for hospitals.
7- estimate capacity of one hospital ( don't know how to do that! Please help)

8- divide demand over capacity of one hospital.

please share feedback and suggest any other approach. I feel like my approach is a bit complicated and I would appreciate it if there were any thoughts on how to have a simpler and clearer approach.

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Ian
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replied on May 15, 2021
MBB | 100% personal interview success rate (8/8) and 95% candidate success rate | Personalized interview prep

Hi there,

This approach absolutely works! I agree that top-down does work well (and would be my preferred option as well)

If you wanted to do bottom-up, basically you'd want to estimate the number of towns, small cities, medium cities, and large cities (London). Then, for each of them, think about how many hostpitals, of what average size (# of beds) and multiply it out!

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Antonello
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replied on May 15, 2021
McKinsey | MBA professor for consulting interviews

Hi, in addition to the solution proposed, I would like to suggest similar cases in the platform to practice with:

  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-much-would-you-charge-to-clean-all-the-windows-in-seattle-4965
  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/market-sizing-milk-consumption-5087
  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-calculate-the-value-of-a-cow-4982
  • https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/estimate-number-of-traffic-lights-in-a-london-5692

Hope it helps,
Antonello

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Henning
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replied on May 15, 2021
Bain | passed >15 MBB interviews as a candidate

I think this approach makes sense. To get to the capacity, I would probably flip it around - assume a utilization (incl. spare capacity) to get to the full capacity and scale up demand to total number of beds.

As an example: If you get to 100k hospital bed demand following you steps 1-6, you can estimate a 1/3 spare capacity (or only 2/3 occupied at any given time). Divide 100k over 2/3 and gt to 150k hospital beds.

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Anonymous B on Jul 04, 2021

wouldn't steps 1-6 be calculating the demand per year? people aren't going to be in the hospital for the entire year. This last part is what confuses me

Clara
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replied on May 16, 2021
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!

Your approach is really solid!

However, you need quite some detailed data there (e.g., estimation of number of visits that each age group does to the hospital, etc.), for which you should remember to problem-solve with the interviewer.

Hope it helps!

Cheers,

Clara

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Ian gave the best answer

Ian

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