I really enjoyed this case. However, I did get the sick patient market sizing fairly incorrect. I understand that the market sizing is more about how you formulate your answer than the exact answer. However, I think some of the key assumptions, in this case, are quite far off. Particularly the cancer numbers.
A chance of developing cancer of 2% in a 75-year lifespan is exceptionally low. The real figure would be much closer to 20-25%, and this is in keeping with China's current prevalence of approximately 1.5%. I think because of this inaccuracy and the fact that the numbers of diabetes patients are calculated off of this, these are also quite far off a more realistic number.
I calculated the sick patient numbers as much higher.
I'd be interesting to know if anybody thinks differently about this? My calculation for pregnant women was fairly accurate, but my sick patient calculation was significantly different.