The number of purchased bike since Covid-19

Question

Hi! Since the pandemic of Covid-19, I noticed that the number of bike has increased significantly.

What if there is a question like this? "What is the number of purchased bike since Covid-19 in X?"

This is my estimation, please correct me!

Population of X= 10 M

Age population probably buy a bike due to Covid-19

21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60 = 5 M

the number of people that can ride a bike = 60% x 5 M = 3 M

the number of people that would use a bike = 10% x 3 M = 300.000

the number of people who have a bike = 80% x 300.000 = 240.000

the number of people who just bought the bike = 10% x 240.000 = 24.000

so, the number of purchased bike since Covid-19 is 24.000 bicycles.

I do not know if this correct or not. Is it to simple? Is it MECE or not?

I also does not have any reason why I chose that percentage :( please help!

I will be having an interview in the upcoming days so I am currently trying to guess a market sizing that might be aligned with todays situation. If you have any suggestion of any market sizing case that I should ace before the interview, please let me know!

Answer 1

Hi there,

It's actually too complex!

You can't break down population by age segment, and then apply a flat # to the whole pop who can ride/want to ride etc.!

The whole point of segmenting is to then apply a % + frequency to those very segments!

The other problem, is you broke it down too much. Why would you go from "Can use a bike" to "Would use a bike" to "actually have a bike" to "just bought a bike"? Rather, you just need to estimate % without a bike pre-covid AND % of those who would THEN change their minds and go buy a bike. Split THIS by population segment...that's it!

Finally, can you make a reasonable estimate between age groups 21-30 and 31-40? Probably not...just go young, middle-aged, and elderly!

So, remember, break things down into logical segments from which you can actually make reasonable assumptions!

Final final point: sense check your final number...24,000 for a pop of 5million is most definitely way too small...

Answer 2

Bike rides? Bikes sold?

Answer 3

Hi, in addition to the solutions proposed by the other coaches in the discussion, I would like to suggest similar cases in the platform to practice with:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-much-would-you-charge-to-clean-all-the-windows-in-seattle-4965
https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/market-sizing-milk-consumption-5087
https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-calculate-the-value-of-a-cow-4982
https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/estimate-number-of-traffic-lights-in-a-london-5692

Hope it helps,
Antonello