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HR asking for comp details after 2 weeks – Is an offer likely?

Hi everyone,

I’m looking for some insight into the post-interview process at McKinsey (Middle East office).

I had my Final Round (R2) for an Associate position exactly two weeks ago. After a period of silence where several other candidates who interviewed the same week received rejections within 4 days, I finally heard back today.

However, it wasn't a "Yes" or "No" yet. HR called to ask for my current compensation details, including base salary, bonus structure, and specific benefits. and mentioned that my recruiter will reach out to me in the next week for next steps. 
For context, I’m currently at another MBB firm, so I assume they are looking to benchmark.

Two questions for the community:

  1. Offer Probability: In your experience, does a request for comp details at this stage almost certainly mean an offer is coming? It seems like a lot of internal paperwork for HR to do if they haven't cleared the bar.
  2. DXB vs. Riyadh Comp: Does anyone have recent data on the Associate-level package for the Dubai vs. Riyadh offices? Specifically, is there a significant "Riyadh Premium" or difference in the bonus/allowance structure between the two locations?

Would love to hear from anyone who has navigated this recently or has been on the recruiting side at the firm!

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