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gari
on May 04, 2019
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Estimate how many traffic signals in any city? Please take an example of any city and tell how to do market sizing?

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Top answer
Sidi
Coach
on May 06, 2019
McKinsey Senior EM & BCG Consultant | Interviewer at McK & BCG for 7 years | Coached 400+ candidates secure MBB offers

Hi!

Feel free to take inspiration from my explanation of a similar question below.

QUESTION:

"Estimate the number of sewerage hatchways in London!"

APPROACH:

I would start by radically simplifying the setting via assumptions:

  • Assume sewerage hatchays are only located on streets
  • Assume a rectangular structure of the London street network with horizontal and vertical streets intersecting in a 90 degrees angle
  • Assume average distance of parallel streets of 200 metres
  • Assume London covers a geographical space of 12x12km
  • Assume there is a sewerage hatchay every 250 metres on average (4 per km)

The general calulcation then looks something like:

[Total length of London street network in km] x [Number of sewerage hatchays per km] = Total number of sewerage hatchays in London

Hence, you need to to calculate the total length of the street network first:

[Number of streets x average length] = Total length of street network

From our assumptions we infer that the number of horizontal streets is 12x5=60 (since there are 5 parallel streets per km). The same is true for vertical streets: 12x5=60. So the total length of the street network is (60+60)*12km = 1440 km.

Now inserting into our above calculation yields:

1440 km x 4 = 5760

So, given the above assumptions, there are roughly 5750 sewerage hatchays in London.

It is important to also stress that this result is equally sensitive to all assumptions (since all elements are connected via multiplications). Hence, changing an assumption by a certain percentage will directly translate into a corresponding percentage-change in the result.

Cheers, Sidi

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3 comments
Anonymous A
on Apr 19, 2021
Hello Sidi, Thank you so much for your approach. I have just one question: Why the geographical space of London is 'only' 12x12 km? Isn't the territorial extension London's much higher?
Sidi
Coach
on Apr 19, 2021
McKinsey Senior EM & BCG Consultant | Interviewer at McK & BCG for 7 years | Coached 400+ candidates secure MBB offers
Maybe. I never lived in the UK, so I don't know. But this is COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT. MBB firms are NOT testing knowledge! They are testing your THINKING! So what is assessed is the LOGIC, not factual knowledge which fills this logic. This is btw. what many many candidates don't understand, because they see the interview like an exam, where they have to give CORRECT answers. That's not the point for an MBB interviewer. And understanding this will serve you very well during your interviews. :)
Anonymous
on Apr 19, 2021
Thank you so much for the fast reply! Have a nice day!
Vlad
Coach
on May 04, 2019
McKinsey / Accenture Alum / Got all BIG3 offers / Harvard Business School

Hi,

How would you approach it? Happy to provide a feedback

Clue: Think of the area of a city, avg. area of a block and lights per block. Adjust the number to freeways, etc

Best!

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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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