Market Sizing - different year

Feedback Market sizing time
New answer on Dec 31, 2021
4 Answers
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Anonymous A asked on Oct 12, 2018

Hello,

I was wondering if I could have some feedback regarding this market sizing I encountered and more specifically on the approach you would to adopt to make up for the time difference:

" How many cars were sold by mercedes in 1970 in Germany"

Thanks in advance for your feedback !

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Guennael
Expert
replied on Oct 13, 2018
Ex-MBB, Experienced Hire; I will teach you not only the how, but also the why of case interviews

Couple of other solutions:

1. Answer for today, then adjust for 50 years ago based on population growth / economic growth / auto park growth / market share growth (pick at least one)

2. Take the hint and realize your interviewer wants you to really do a market sizing exercise without relying on existing knowledge (how many of us here on PrepLounge were even born then? right!) and go through the whole exercise by questioning every assumption you 'think you know'

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Ian
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Content Creator
replied on Dec 31, 2021
MBB | 100% personal interview success rate (8/8) and 95% candidate success rate | Personalized interview prep

Hi there,

Providing some market sizing thinking for anyone revisiting this Q&A:

Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.

For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of the tourism (or hotel) industry? Then break it down that way.

Some tips:

  1. Just like in a case, make sure you understand the question - what are you really being asked to calculate
  2. Decide whether a top-down or bottom-up approach is best
  3. Figure out what you know you know, and what you know you don't know, but could estimate
    1. This helps you determine how to split out buckets
  4. Stay flexible - you can start with a "high-level" market sizing, but gauge your interviewers reaction....if it looks like they want you to do more...then go along level deeper in terms of your splits
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Anonymous updated the answer on Oct 13, 2018

Also, it might reflect well on your general knowledge if you know that at that time Germany meant West Germany only...

(edited)

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Benjamin
Expert
replied on Oct 12, 2018
ex-Manager - Natural and challenging teacher - Taylor case solving, no framework

Hi,
Not so complicated, you just need to adapt your assumptions to 1970's figures.
Personnaly i would proceed top / down :

- Evaluate new car selling market in 1970's, based on population size with an assumption on the share of pop. owning car, then % of new car bought annually

- assume a market share for mercedes and apply it to the above market

Best
Benjamin

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Guennael gave the best answer

Guennael

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