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Ian

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3

Estimation/ Market size

"Estimate the number of visitors at amusement park in city X"

I don't know if its better to segment based on age or income but my gut tells me to go with age.
so this is what I'll do:

1- Whole population of city X

2- segment based on age (young (0-20), middle aged(21-50's), old (60 and above)

3- From children exclude new borns and minorty who are sick or on wheel chairs so (5 or 10% from children won't visit)

4- Middle aged will mostly go with friends or family so 80% will visit . (10% middle aged and very busy, other 10% don't have children or are not intrested).

5- Most of old people won't visit so maybe 10-15% only would visit with their families.
6-Add all numbers to get number of vistors.
7- assume 10% only of total vistors will visit the park twice a year.
8- Add step 6 & 7

this is my approach to the question and I'm not sure wether to stop at step 6 or continue and consider 7 & 8. Kindly share your opinion and feedback on my approach.

"Estimate the number of visitors at amusement park in city X"

I don't know if its better to segment based on age or income but my gut tells me to go with age.
so this is what I'll do:

1- Whole population of city X

2- segment based on age (young (0-20), middle aged(21-50's), old (60 and above)

3- From children exclude new borns and minorty who are sick or on wheel chairs so (5 or 10% from children won't visit)

4- Middle aged will mostly go with friends or family so 80% will visit . (10% middle aged and very busy, other 10% don't have children or are not intrested).

5- Most of old people won't visit so maybe 10-15% only would visit with their families.
6-Add all numbers to get number of vistors.
7- assume 10% only of total vistors will visit the park twice a year.
8- Add step 6 & 7

this is my approach to the question and I'm not sure wether to stop at step 6 or continue and consider 7 & 8. Kindly share your opinion and feedback on my approach.

(edited)

3 answers

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Book a coaching with Ian

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Hi there,

Overall I think this approach is good!

A few thoughts:

  1. You should go with the segment that is most directly correlated to the outcome. I think both age and income work. Trust your gut here. You can also do BOTH if the case calls for it (i.e. you could cut the super young and super old from this segment AND cut the 30% low income in America)
  2. Careful with your assumptions here. 80% of all Middle-aged Americans do not visit an amusement park each year. That is an absurdly high number!
  3. I like step #7. Remember, the rule here is you only add additional depth/detail if it truly helps your analysis and is reasonable. I think step 7 fits this criteria.

Overall, well done! But, keep practicing to work out some of the remaining weaknesses :)

Hi there,

Overall I think this approach is good!

A few thoughts:

  1. You should go with the segment that is most directly correlated to the outcome. I think both age and income work. Trust your gut here. You can also do BOTH if the case calls for it (i.e. you could cut the super young and super old from this segment AND cut the 30% low income in America)
  2. Careful with your assumptions here. 80% of all Middle-aged Americans do not visit an amusement park each year. That is an absurdly high number!
  3. I like step #7. Remember, the rule here is you only add additional depth/detail if it truly helps your analysis and is reasonable. I think step 7 fits this criteria.

Overall, well done! But, keep practicing to work out some of the remaining weaknesses :)

Book a coaching with Clara

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Hello!

Although I overall like the way you have approach it (e.g., breaking it into age gorups, that is the same that I would do) there is a fundamental thing that you need to take care of at the beggining: the timeframe!

Are you calculating all of that for a single year? Since I believe it´s very high to assume the % of visits/year. Those would make more sense in a 5 year timeframe tbh, which radically changes the final outcome.

Hope it helps!

Cheers,

Clara

Hello!

Although I overall like the way you have approach it (e.g., breaking it into age gorups, that is the same that I would do) there is a fundamental thing that you need to take care of at the beggining: the timeframe!

Are you calculating all of that for a single year? Since I believe it´s very high to assume the % of visits/year. Those would make more sense in a 5 year timeframe tbh, which radically changes the final outcome.

Hope it helps!

Cheers,

Clara

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