It is difficult for me because I do not know whether people will still read paper-based newspaper in the future.
Do anyone know how to solve this kind of problems?
Thanks!
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Market size of newspapers(paper-based) sold in 2040
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Your approach looks consistent. The critical point in this problem is estimating penetration in 2040. It is all about which drivers you are providing while you are assuming % of people reading news online vs offline.
- maybe paper usage for newspapers will be 100% banned due to environmental reasons?
- maybe it will be very expensive due to the decreasing number of demand and only very rich people will have this.
etc...
So it is not possible to make a perfect estimation about the last ratio but it is possible to discuss creative and important drivers...
Hope it helps
Best
Serhat
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@ Jorrit: perhaps 5% is too low. Perhaps the industry changes to a niche, more premium offering in which newspapers can charge higher prices.
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The posted formula could work, but really think about that final assumption. Would the paper-based industry still be around if they had only 5% of their readers? They are already struggeling atm and think about all the fixed costs in printing and distribution.
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[pop now] * [growth factor to get pop 2040] * [1/# people per household] * [% that reads] * [% that reads new papers] * [% that reads news papers offline]
The last % is the most difficult, This will be low. I would ballpark it at 5%.
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