What do you think of this approach?
- To estimate the # of business that buy firewors I would find # people of working age on China that work on firms / Average # people per firm.
- To estimate the number of people of working age in China I would start by Chinese population x % in working age that work in firms.
- For that I would start segmenting 1b population into population on working age 52.5% (Population between 18-60 years) = 525 m. Then I would segment this by % Employed ( 90%) and % Unemployed (10%), then I would segment the %Employed into % Working by firms (80%) and % Self employed (10%), this would give me a 380m.
- To estimate the Average # people per business I would do the following segmentation: - 20 employes for 90% of firms - 50 employes for 9% of firms - 200 employes for 1% of firms This gives me 18. So I get 21.1 m
Thank you everyone.