Hi, I made the below case, and can you pls let me know if my approach/structure/drivers analysis makes sense?
The government of NSW (a state of Australia) has hired you to help with its vaccine rollout program.
CQ:
1. May I know what is the scope of the work? I.e. from vaccine procurement, transportation to distributions and administration? Or only focus on "giving the vaccine to people."?
Interviewer: Federal government takes care of the procurement and transportation, and you can assume for everyone who needs vaccine, the doses are available for them.
2. Any specific target they want to reach?
Interviewer: they want to have 80% of the eligible residents fully vaccinated within 12 months.
3. Considering from the government's perspective, the more and the faster we can get people vaccinated the better. So I assume eligible means people who are above 16 years old? And no other criteria to exclude people who the eligibilities? Or shall I consider factors such as medical conditions as well?
Interviewer: Yes, population above 16 years old.
Structure:
1. Demand and Supply analysis:
- Demand:
- Quantitatively: How many people are eligible for vaccination? Target coverage?
- Qualitatively: How many are willing to? Drivers: gender, age group, culture, work types, connection/community, education level
8M population x (Y16 - Y80)/80 x 80% required coverage = 5.12M people
5.12M x 2 doses/person = 10.24M doses needed (at least to cover people who are eligible and targeted)
(Potential damage/loss/expiration rate: 1% ; 10.24M/99% ~ 10.3M doses as requested supply from Federal government)
- Supply:
- Quantitatively: How many jabs can be administered?
- Qualitatively: How to do that? e.g. people, process, resources
i) NSW Health jab sites:
- # doctors, workers, volunteers
- Working hours each day, opening days
- Time for one jab
- Utilization rate
- 10 sites
- 50 doctors each
- 8am - 6pm each day
- 6mins for 1 jab
- 7 days a week
10 hours * 60 mins/6mins * 50 doctors* 80% utilization rate = 400 per day per site
2000 per day across 5 sites
14000 doses administered per week
ii) Clinics
- #clinics
- # doctors, workers, volunteers
- Working hours each day, opening days
- Utilization rate
- 650 suburbs (*suburbs means districts in Australia) in NSW
- 1 clinic each suburb ( sanity check: 8M/650 ~ 12300 people served/clinic; considering average people go to clinic every 123 days, so 100 patients per day should be reasonable)
- 2 doctors available for giving jab at each clinic
- 50% utilization rate (doctors need to see patients for other things)
- 9am - 5pm each day
- 5 days a week
- 6min for 1 jab
8hours*60min/6min*2doctors*50% = 80 per day per clinics
650 clinics*80= 52000
260000 doses administered per week
Total 260000+14000 = 274000 doses administered each week
==>
(if not considering the wait time between two doses)
10.24M/274000=37 ~40 weeks/10 months to rollout, which meets the government's time target
2. Implementation and considerations:
- Demand side:
- The reluctancy/rejection from people to take vaccine, making coverage below 80%
=> To mitigate that, the government should consider (from a customer journey perspective):
- Increase the awareness of people, e.g. ads and news channels (targeting the groups that are anti-vaccine or have concerns), send messages that the side effect is low
- Make access to vaccination sites/clinic easier, e.g. online/phone booking system, registration at work/supermarket
- Incentives, e.g. vaccinated passport, ease of lockdown/quarantine
- Supply side:
- Short of doctors and workers
=> To mitigate that, e.g .volunteers, trained medical students
2. Financial budget to afford vaccine and workers
3. Distribution of doses to such mass network of small clinics
Conclusion:
- Will be able to have 80% of eligible residents fully vaccined within 12months
- Risks (above)
- Next steps (above)
(editiert)
